Bio bih slobodan (a da ne prevodim jer je predugacko) da skrenem paznju na nešto sto sam nasao surfom. Delimicno se tiče naseljavanja u Nemackoj, a u dodiru sa zvanicnom politikom...
Living in a place that used to be Slavonic until the 12th century, I have been wondering about this myself already for some time. I feel this is a good opportunity to present some of my findings and conclusion, also as they may be pertinent to Mathir's highly interesting attempt to reconstruct Slavic population movement from genetic data.
For the area covered during the LGM, i.e. the Northern European Plain north-east of the approximate line Hannover-Berlin-Bydgoszcz. multiple pollen analyses from sediments of glacial lakes, and from swamp areas, are available. Most of them point to a dramatic, though not complete drop in agricultural land use around the 5th/6th century, followed by a small recovery around the 8th/ 9th century, substantial increase in the 12th century back to the level that existed during the 1st-3rd century AD, and a historical peak in the 14th and early 15th century. Interpreting these patterns needs to consider that lake/ swamp sediments have a limited catchment radius which, depending on the size of the lake in question, may cover as little as 1-2 km. The lakes/swamps are furthermore located within alluvial, i.e. sandy environments, and as such rather reflect the use of marginal lands, and not agriculture along fertile river marshes. As such, the pollen diagrams are likely to overstate actual changes in human land use.
On a closer look, comparing various locations reveals the existence of two diametrically opposite trends. In Western Germany, the agricultural decline already commences in the early 1st century AD. In several parts of Westphalia, agricultural land use drops by around 50% from the first century BC to the 3rd century AD. The drop is most likely related to Roman attempts to conquer lands east of the Rhine, but may also reflect contemporary Germanic incursions into previously Celtic areas. A 50% drop in cereal pollen reported from Dithmarschen (Riesenwohld) north of the Upper Elbe between the 1st and 3rd century AD, however, is obviously linked to Roman fleet expeditions during this period. At the same time, there is a marked increase in agricultural land use further east. This corresponds to Roman reports of a mass flight of Germanics across the Elbe during Drusus' campaign (12-9 BC).
Another marked drop in agricultural land use in Westphalia, to only 10-15% of the pre-Roman peak, occurs in the early 3rd century BC. Such a drop can also be observed in several locations further East, e.g. Herzberg on the south-western Harz (Jues-See), and is most likely linked to the Roman incursions under Emperors Severus Alexander and/or Maximilian Thrax (for background see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_at_the_Harzhorn). Here, again, agricultural land use further east shows a contemporary increase, indicating further Germanic migration away from areas threatened by Roman incursions.
During the migration period, Westphalia is repopulated. By as early as around 475 AD in some areas, e.g. around Rheine, and in the second half of the 6th century across all of Westphalia, agricultural land use returns to the level observed during the 1st-3rd century AD. This is interpreted as sign of Saxon immigration from north-east of the Elbe, promoted by the fact that the Franks had eliminated the danger of Roman incursions. Simultaneously, agricultural land use in Dithmarschen, i.e. the northern upper Elbe, picks up strongly, almost reaching 14h/15th century peak level. This means that the Upper Elbe area, even though it may have contributed to the Anglo-Saxon migration into England, has probably been a net immigration region during the 5th-8th century AD.
East of a line that more or less corresponds to the maximum extend of Slavic settlement during the early middle ages, the trends are opposite. Southwest of the Elbe, there are significant signs of dips during periods of Roman incursions (turn of the millennium, early 3rd century), which correspond to settlement increase further east, and (partial) recovery thereafter. Then, at latest by the mid 6th century, agricultural land use declines suddenly and massively. In the case of the well-studied Belau Lake in eastern Holstein, e.g., settlement indicators decrease from more than 30% of all pollen in the early 5th century and around 25% in the early 6th century to below 10% in the late 6th century. This corresponds to archaeological evidence of various settlements that have been given up around 550 BC. During the late 7th century, in the Belau lake sediments settlement indicators increase steeply to 20-25%. They remain at that level until around 1150, i.e. the beginning of German colonolisation. Then, another steep and steady incline to more than 55% by the beginning of the 14th century takes place. Similar patterns have been observed in other places, e.g. the Müritz lakes in Mecklenburg, and swamps in the Hanoverian Wendland SE of Luneburg, where, however, the local stratigraphy is more compressed, so dating of the changes is subject to higher uncertainty.
German Wikipedia furthermore reports a substantial increase in forest coverage (which implies substantial reduction of agricultural land use) all along the Pomeranian and South Swedish Baltic Sea coast during the Migration Period. Pollen diagrams from Rybojady on the Obra river west of Posznan show a strong increase in agricultural use including cereal production during the late Iron Age / Roman period, possibly indicating immigration from Western Germany after the Roman conquest attempt. Here. however, settlement already declines markedly during the 4th century AD, with an abrupt break in the presence of cereal pollen from approximately 400 AD on. Recovery, including re-emergence of cereal production, already commences in the 7th century, some 50-100 years earlier than in Eastern Holstein.
Interestingly, just west of the line settled by Slavs, the pattern is quite different. Sediments in the Einfeld Lake, just 20 km west of the Belau Lake, do not show any traces of agricultural decline during the 6th and 7th century, and even a first, temporary cereal production peak during the 9th century, at a time when nearby Neumünster was the political centre of Saxon Middle Holstein. Similarly, pollen from the Elbaer Moor, a few km north of Luneburg, and less than 15km west of the area where Slavic village names start to dominate, does hardly show signs of agricultural and settlement decline during the 5th to 7th century. However, grain production may have been temporarily reduced, while animal husbandry increased simultaneously. Here, strong agricultural and settlement expansion commences already in the early middle ages, probably as early as by the mid-8th century AD.
